题目: Heterogeneous Households, Mortgage Debt and House Prices over the Great Recession
主讲人: 张莉妮
时间：2016年4月27日（周三）下午1:30
地点：国际经管学院会议室（诚明楼三层）
主办方：国际经济管理学院
摘要:
This paper studies the contractions in the U.S. housing market and the real economy in the Great Recession. I build a quantitative general equilibrium model with heterogeneous households and two sectors. Households face portfolio problems that involve selecting the stock of housing, mortgage debts and financial assets. The real house price is endogenous and households have the option to default on mortgage debt. The model matches the housing and non-housing moments in the U.S. data. The combination of a negative productivity shock, a financial shock and a housing depreciation shock on the economy can reasonably explain the recessions in the housing market and the real economy. Specifically, the decrease of aggregate productivity accounts for the declines in aggregate output, consumption, investment, labor hours as well as part of the drop in housing production and demand. The tighter financial condition explains the large decreases in mortgage debt, leverage and housing demand. The high housing depreciation generates a high mortgage default rate and reduces housing demand as household net worth shrinks. Households deleverage and reduce mortgage debt when the financial condition is tightened or when housing value is exposed to persistently high depreciation shocks because the cost of borrowing through mortgages would increase greatly relative to the benefit of borrowing in either case.
主讲人简介：张莉妮，中央财经大学金融学院助理教授，博士毕业于美国俄亥俄州立大学，主要研究方向为宏观经济学，宏观金融，房地产经济学，中国经济。
