题目：The Impact of High-Speed Rail Investment on Economic and Environmental Change in China: A Dynamic CGE Analysis

主讲人：Zhenhua Chen (Sol Price School of Public Policy, University of Southern California)

时间：2016年5月25日（周三） 13:30

地点：国际经管学院会议室（诚明楼三层）
主办方：国际经济管理学院

Abstract：This study investigates the impact of high-speed rail investment on the economy and environment in China using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model with a focus on the period 2002-2013. The analysis is implemented in a dynamic recursive framework capturing long-run capital accumulation and labor market equilibrium. A national level impact was simulated through direct impact drivers including land use conversion, output expansion, cost reduction, productivity increase, transport demand substitution and induced demand. The results suggest that rail investment in China over the past two decades has been a positive stimulus to both the economy and social welfare, while the effect on CO₂ emissions generation has been large. Overall, the economic and welfare contributions of rail investment are achieved primarily through induced demand and output expansion, whereas the contribution from a reduction of rail transportation costs and rail productivity increases were modest. In addition, negligible negative impacts from land use for rail development and the substitution effect among other modes were found. Emissions reduction from substitution of rail for other modes was small and overwhelmed by output expansion due to lowered rail transport costs and induced demand.

主讲人简介：

Zhenhua Chen will serve as a tenure-track assistant professor at the City and Regional Planning Department at the Ohio State University this fall. He is currently a postdoctoral research associate in the Price School of Public Policy at University of Southern California. Before his postdoc’s position, Dr. Chen received his PhD in Public Policy at George Mason University and a MA in Regional Economics from the College of Economics at Shenzhen University in China. His research interest focuses on both China and the United States covering fields of economic geography, regional science, transportation planning and policy, as well as public finance.

Dr. Chen’s recent research has been published in Transport Reviews, Journal of Transport Geography, Transportation, Annals of Regional Science, Papers in Regional Science, Economic Development Quarterly, Public Works Management and Policy, Applied Economic Letters, Case Studies on Transport Policy, Journal of Transportation Research Forum and Transportation Law Journal. Hi recent book Chinese Railways in the Era of High-Speed was published in 2015 by Emerald.